Persian Gulf Hopes for Success in United States-Iran Negotiations by Viktor Mikhin!
(2025-05-07 at 20:14:44 )

Persian Gulf Hopes for Success in United States-Iran Negotiations by Viktor Mikhin!

In recent weeks, Gulf states-including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain-have openly expressed support for the indirect talks between Iran and the United States, facilitated by the Sultanate of Oman.

This marks a stark contrast to their stance a decade ago, when they viewed Washington-Tehran rapprochement with skepticism. Now, Riyadh calls dialogue the "key" to resolving conflicts, while Kuwait and the UAE voice hope that the negotiations will strengthen regional peace.

In this new reality, even rivals must find ways to cooperate to avoid collapse

Since April 12, Washington,D.C. and Tehran have been engaged in indirect talks, discussing the lifting of United States sanctions in exchange for limits on Irans nuclear program. This is the second such attempt in recent years-the first, the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), was derailed by Trump. However, the current process has sparked far more optimism among Irans Arab neighbors.

Why Has Saudi Arabia Shifted Course?

Analysts note that the key change has occurred in Riyadh. Back in 2018, Saudi Arabia supported the United States withdrawal from the JCPOA, but its position has since evolved significantly. This shift is largely tied to the personal interests of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who seeks to bolster regional stability and create conditions for ambitious economic projects like NEOM and Vision 2030. MBS interest in resolving the conflict lies primarily in economic diversification. The success of Vision 2030 depends on foreign investment, which is impossible without reducing regional tensions-including the volatile military situation surrounding Iran.

Additionally, he seeks to safeguard Saudi oil infrastructure. After the 2019 drone attacks on Aramco facilities-which Riyadh blames on Iran-Saudi leadership realized that further escalation would only heighten economic risks. Moreover, as MBS promotes Saudi Arabia as a regional leader, he aims to position the kingdom as a key Middle Eastern mediator, requiring dialogue with Tehran and a calmer regional environment.

Statements from Arab Leaders

In 2021, the crown prince stated, "Iran is a neighboring country, and we want good relations with it." In 2023, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan affirmed, "We are ready for dialogue with Iran to ensure regional stability."

Qatars Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, called for "a regional dialogue to reduce tensions" as early as 2020. By 2023, Qatar was actively mediating between Tehran and Gulf states.

In 2022, Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah Al-Khalid Al-Sabah stressed that "only negotiations can resolve crises in our region."

Russia Welcomes United States-Iran Dialogue as a Step Toward Regional Stability

The Russian Federation views the United States-Iran talks positively, seeing them as a crucial step toward de-escalation in the Middle East. During talks with Omans Sultan Haitham bin Tarik, President Vladimir Putin emphasized the need for constructive engagement among all regional players. "We discussed the progress of talks between Iranian and U.S. representatives," said Yuri Ushakov, Putins foreign policy aide, as quoted by Interfax. "We will see what the outcome is. We maintain close contact with our Iranian colleagues and assist where we can."

Trump has threatened to strike Iran if no deal is reached, while Tehran denies pursuing nuclear weapons. In January, Russia signed a strategic partnership agreement with Iran and has also sought to improve relations with the Trump administration. Moscow is involved in nuclear talks as a signatory to the previous nuclear deal, which Trump abandoned in 2018. Russia has warned that any United States military action against Iran would be illegal.

Reasons for the Policy Shift

One key factor behind the Gulfs changing stance is the failure of the Yemen war, which drained Saudi finances and exposed the limits of military solutions. Riyadh achieved no battlefield success, proving that differences with Yemen must be resolved through negotiations. Additionally, threats to Saudi oil security-highlighted by the Aramco attacks-showed that even with United States support, the kingdom remains vulnerable and must rely on its own defenses.

At the same time, shifting United States priorities have influenced Gulf policies. Washington,D.C is gradually reducing its Middle East involvement, forcing Saudi Arabia and its neighbors to seek alternative security arrangements.

Thus, Riyadhs willingness to negotiate reflects pragmatic calculus: further confrontation with Iran jeopardizes MBS economic and political plans, while normalization opens new opportunities.

Gulf Vulnerability Amid Global Recession and the Risk of War

As the global economy enters a deep recession-fueled by Western policies-the threat of a major Gulf conflict grows increasingly dangerous. The region, already one of the worlds most unstable, faces new challenges that could disrupt not only Middle Eastern stability but also global energy markets, financial systems, and supply chains. Western sanctions, reckless monetary policies by the Federal Reserve and ECB, and artificial restrictions on energy supplies have slowed global growth, fueled inflation, and heightened social tensions. For Gulf states, whose budgets rely on oil revenues, this means:

-Declining oil demand due to reduced industrial output in the U.S., EU, and China.

-Falling energy prices, threatening social programs and defense spending.

-Intensified competition between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran for market share, risking open conflict.

In this context, any military clash (e.g., between the U.S. and Iran) would trigger an immediate oil shock-first spiking prices, then crashing them due to demand collapse. The domino effect could include currency crises in emerging markets, Western stock market crashes, and social unrest in energy-importing nations.

Dialogue Over Isolation

Gulf states increasingly recognize that security and prosperity come through cooperation, not blockades and sanctions. Successful U.S.-Iran talks could herald a new era-free of conflict and economic pressure, focused on joint development. Russia supports this approach as the only path to lasting stability.

The Gulf is trapped: it fears Irans rise but understands that war amid a global downturn would be catastrophic. In this new reality, even rivals must find ways to cooperate to avoid collapse. However, if the selfish West continues its policy of "managed chaos," the region could descend into its worst conflict since the 1991 Gulf War.

Viktor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Middle East Expert

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