Running Out of Time.. October Surprise Redux? by Philip Giraldi
(2020-10-16 at 12:01:39 )

Running Out of Time.. October Surprise Redux? by Philip Giraldi

There is considerable speculation in Washington,D.C. about a so-called October Surprise being engineered by either party to change the outcome of the upcoming election.

The original October Surprise took place in 1980, when Ronald Reagans campaign manager William Casey conspired with several senior Central Intelligence Agency officers in Europe to convince the Iranian government to delay the release of the American Embassy hostages until after the November election against Jimmy Carter.

Casey believed that any earlier release of the hostages would give a boost to the Carter campaign. The Iranian government was approached and complied with the request, believing that it would result in a less hostile relationship with the new administration. In the event, Reagan defeated Carter and some believed that the continuation of the hostage crisis had made the administration look feckless and hurt the incumbent.

The latest version of the October Surprise relates inevitably to the recent bout of President Donald Trump with COVID-19, which some conspiracy theorists are attributing to his having been deliberately infected by the Democrats to take him out of the race. There is no evidence to support such a claim and it is not even clear exactly how one would go about getting access to the president and introducing the virus.

Another recent version of the Surprise involves starting a little war to demonstrate national resolve and willingness to directly confront the United States of Americas enemies.

It has been suggested that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo might be considering staging some kind of provocation or even a false flag operation that would result in open conflict with Iran or even Syria with the United States arguing that the fighting is both lawful and defensive in nature.

Such a suggestion might be considered insanity, but there are signs that the United States in heightening its delegitimization campaign against Iran in particular.

Unconfirmable allegations from anonymous United States government sources are surfacing about an alleged Iranian plot to kill the United States Ambassador in South Africa while Washington,D.C. is now implementing new unilateral sanctions against Tehran as well as Damascus.

The downside that suggests that starting something with Iran might be a bridge too far is the considerable ability of the Mullahs to strike back against United States forces in the region. Venezuela might be considered a much softer target, where the United States also has sanctions and a naval blockade in place.

But also given the fact that Donald Trumps taxes and Hunter Bidens illegal meanderings in Eastern Europe have failed to arouse much public anger, perhaps the most interesting option for staging an October Surprise is already out on the table as it were and has been alluded to by a number of Republican politicians as well as by some of the punditry in the conservative media.

It consists of a declassified letter sent to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) by Director of National Intelligence (DNI) John Ratcliffe. DNI Ratcliffe was responding to Mr. Grahams request for an intelligence community overview of the Federal Bureau of Investigations handling of Crossfire Hurricane.

Crossfire Hurricane was the cover name given to what has turned out to be a possible Hillary Clinton initiated FBI-run largely clandestine defamation campaign directed against Donald Trump and all his associates that may have been launched formally in July 2016.

In the letter, DNI Ratcliffe provided the following declassified information to the Senate committee for its consideration. The letter was received by Mr. Graham on September 29, the same day as the first presidential debate. The key points are:

"In late July 2016, United States intelligence agencies obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that United States Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against United States Presidential candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Mr. Putin and the Russians hacking of the Democratic National Committee. The IC does not know the accuracy of this allegation or the extent to which the Russian intelligence analysis may reflect exaggeration or fabrication.

"According to his handwritten notes, former Central Intelligence Agency Director Mr. Brennan subsequently briefed President Barack Obama and other senior national security officials on the intelligence, including the "alleged approval by Hillary Clinton on July 26, 2016 of a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisors to vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by Russian security services.""

"On 07 September 2016, United States intelligence officials forwarded an investigative referral to FBI Director James Comey and Deputy Assistant Director of Counterintelligence Peter Strzok regarding United States Presidential candidate Hillary Clintons approval of a plan concerning United States Presidential candidate Donald Trump and Russian hackers hampering United States elections as a means of distracting the public from her use of a private mail server."

Noting the fact that the Bureau did not aggressively follow-up on the claims regarding Ms Clinton, who was expected to win the election, Mr. Graham subsequently commented on the letter, saying “"This latest information provided by DNI Ratcliffe shows there may have been a double standard by the FBI regarding allegations against the Clinton campaign and Russia. Whether these allegations are accurate is not the question. The question is, did the FBI investigate the allegations against Ms Clinton like they did Mr. Trump? If not, why not? If so, what was the scope of the investigation? If none, why was that?"

The Ratcliffe letter was followed by a committee review of the confidential information that supported the claims made in the letter. On the following day, the committee questioned former head of the FBI James Comey who implausibly claimed that Crossfire Hurricane "did not ring a bell," before asserting that his bureau "did not intentionally commit wrongdoing" though there may have been some "real sloppiness" on the part of some FBI employees.

An angry Donald Trump subsequently ordered that all the documents relating to the Russiagate investigation be declassified, but neither the CIA nor the FBI appears to be in any hurry to comply, so there are unlikely to be any new revelations before the election.

So the real smoking pistol that might have turned into an October Surprise may have been the expectation on the part of some Senate Republicans that the story about Hillary Clinton personally initiating an illegal conspiracy involving the FBI and intelligence community to destroy a political rival would take off politically. As President Barack Obama reportedly was briefed on what was taking place and signed off on it, it is plausible that Joe Biden as Vice President was also in the loop. That might have been enough to turn voters against Joe Biden and the party that he represents.

Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on ones point of view, the United States media has not taken the bait. The tale revealed by the Ratcliffe-Graham letter was hardly replayed in the mainstream and there were few in the public space who stridently demanded that Hillary Clinton publicly face the consequences for her illegal and one might even suggest treasonous actions. Hatred of Donald Trump in the media seemingly cancels out all other considerations, particularly when it is the Democrats who are behaving badly.

And now time is running out. If either party has an October Surprise up its sleeve it had better produce it soon. Only about three weeks to go until the election.

Reprinted here from the "Strategic Culture Foundation" provides a platform for exclusive analysis, research and policy comment on Eurasian and global affairs. We are covering political, economic, social and security issues worldwide. Since 2005 our journal has published thousands of analytical briefs and commentaries with the unique perspective of independent contributors. SCF works to broaden and diversify expert discussion by focusing on hidden aspects of international politics and unconventional thinking. Benefiting from the expanding power of the Internet, we work to spread reliable information, critical thought and progressive ideas.